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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still